The oscillatory movements in the price of bitcoin (quotation of BTC in real time) seen in the last few weeks could be an indication that the 4-year cycles are about to end. This is the opinion of cryptocurrency market analyst Willy Woo.
The beginning of the end?
On Twitter, the specialist pointed out that since bitcoin trades above $ 41.300 (after recovering from $ 38.000 on average), it is likely that the first signs of the "last cycle" are being observed, recalling that there have already been at least three relatively short bull and bear markets.
But what are the four-year cycles? These are periods of highs and lows in the price of BTC that are marked by halving (an event where the rewards of mining Bitcoin are halved).
For some years, the history of prices coincides with bullish periods followed by bearish ones, which has favored the existence of the aforementioned cycles for those who closely follow the behavior of BTC.
If you look at the chart below showing bitcoin's behavior since 2010, you can see the various price spikes to the upside and how they are automatically followed by downturns.
But this is about to end. Willy Woo notes that if the "last cycle" is proven, four-year cycles would no longer exist.
Willy Woo speaks once again of the end of cycles almost five months after having already expressed this possibility. In October 2021, he stated that price movements could previously have been predicted based on halving, but that there will now be an "unpredictable walk" of supply and demand, making it difficult to project the prices of the first cryptocurrency, at least until market saturation.
Willy Woo withdraws from bitcoin forecasts
Such an unpredictable excursion that Woo talked about coincides with the fact that, a few weeks ago, he ditched his market analysis newsletter which included some bitcoin price predictions. He hypothesized that cryptocurrency is already a currency whose price can no longer be studied and much less estimated.
As we reported, Woo ended his newsletter warning of a bearish forecast for the BTC price, as the cryptocurrency has maintained a close correlation with the traditional market.
According to Woo, the immaturity of the Bitcoin market makes predicting the price a complicated task and so he has also stopped sending his newsletter, although he has indicated new projects for this year.