The price of Bitcoin (quotation BTC) could drop to $ 21.820, which is the current moving average value calculated over the previous week.
Bitcoin hovering at $ 30.000
Bitcoin's price curve could worsen if the price dips below $ 30.000 again to retest the intraday lows of $ 28.800. Currently, the bulls are looking to dominate the game, but they will only succeed if they break out of the previous support level, which has been turned into resistance, at $ 32.000.
A rejection leading to a slide below $ 28.000 could lead to a potentially bearish scenario at lows of $ 21.000 - $ 18.000. According to technical analyst Ali Martinez, bears could push as high as $ 18k if BTC's price trajectory mirrors the 2017 post-ATH fractal.
At the time, a 70% drop from the all-time high saw BTC bottom around $ 5.900 as the 2018 bear market unfolded. The analyst thinks something similar could materialize in the coming days (or weeks). He shared the graph below and added: "If something like what happened in mid-December 2017 repeats itself, Bitcoin could plummet to $ 18.000."
This will be a decisive week
An on-chain metric called Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also suggests that BTC's price could see further declines. SOPR helps assess trends by showing whether products spent are profitable or losing.
If the reading of that parameter is greater than 1, then the output transactions were in profit. Values less than 1 indicate that the tenants were at a loss when the output transaction occurred.
Selling pressure increases when the metric suggests that the majority of holders are in profit. According to Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Bitcoin's drop from highs of $ 38.000 to $ 28.800 "is not surprising."
Rafael, who is the CTO of Glassnode, says the SOPR is currently too large and moving towards 1. This then suggests that less BTC is moving up the chain as some holders sell at "extreme profits".
Turning this former support zone into resistance adds credibility to the likelihood of further collapse. The moving average price level is currently around $ 21.820.
Conversely, a daily close above $ 30.000, with highs of $ 32.000 in the middle, could preserve the upside outlook. A move to the $ 35k threshold will be the short-term goal if the bulls consolidate towards a retest of the $ 42.000 resistance level.
