Numerous bitcoin price predictions are published worldwide every day (quotation BTC), the market's leading cryptocurrency. Some manage to get the right figure, while others are very far from the real one. There was even a lack of metrics and analysts who on other occasions managed to hit the mark.
This is the case, for example, of the instrument known as “S2F or stock-to-flow”. It predicts the price of bitcoin by dividing the total amount of cryptocurrency issues by annual production.
Cryptocurrency is in decline, as is the stock market
While this metric was able to predict times like the May to July 2021 correction, it suggests bitcoin will hit $ 72.000 this week. Such a projection is unlikely to be achieved in the current context, if not "impossible". That's why the Ethereum cofounder recently criticized stock-to-flow.
The cryptocurrency is down, like the stock market, due to rising inflation and countermeasures in the US and Europe. For the past six days, BTC has been trading between US $ 20.000 and US $ 22.000, so specialists are closely watching whether it will break to the downside or to the upside these days.
Fidelity pointed out that SF2 is no longer accurate and never will be. The reason is that it is nearly impossible to accurately estimate bitcoin's future adoption rate. Indeed, the current decline is one of the largest the market has ever seen in its history and was not predicted by many metrics or specialists.
Contrary to the bearish trend the market is experiencing, several analysts had predicted that the major cryptocurrency would hit a new all-time high right now. Even the specialists who, on several occasions, have managed to predict its price in advance.
All wrong predictions
One example is Carlos Maslatón, who a year ago said that today, in June 2022, bitcoin will be worth more than $ 120.000. However, it is worth noting that at other times he has been right in his forecasts of him and this has allowed him to enrich himself as an investor. He claims that his successes are due to the analysis of the human behavior of traders.
Bitcoin price prediction shouldn't be based on a single metric or person.
The lesson from this overview is that the price of bitcoin depends on a confluence of factors. Therefore, its prediction cannot be made on the basis of a single metric or the opinion of an analyst.
It can be seen today, where despite growing institutional adoption and interest in BTC, its price is in free fall. Above all due to the economic-political context and the fear generated by some events.
In this sense, it is essential to understand that the price of BTC cannot be predicted by analyzing a single factor. To predict its movement, it is advisable to appropriate several forecasting metrics, as well as analyze the behavior of bitcoin investors in context.
The more we know the realities that influence the bitcoin market, the more we can correctly predict the price trend. However, no one has the crystal ball to predict the future. Therefore, as with any investment, it is crucial to consider the possible risk to be prepared for different scenarios.