After a confident rally despite last month's banking crisis, the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (quotation BTC), has been consolidating over the past two weeks. For the past few days, BTC price has been flirting around the $28.000 level.
The immediate headwind for Bitcoin's price is $30.000, beyond which the cryptocurrency's next big rally can be triggered. However, the events scheduled for this week will play a crucial role in determining the momentum of the BTC price. In the week ahead, investors should keep an eye on key macro data.
One of the most important macro data is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Wednesday, April 12. During this time, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market may experience increased volatility.
Investors will be hanging on whether the Federal Reserve will announce another rate hike following the CPI data or whether there will be a pause. In addition to inflation data, data on the US labor market will be instrumental in deciding the trajectory of the market. Last month, the CPI numbers stood at 6,0% year over year and 0,4% month over year.
For March, expectations for the CPI are 5,2% YoY and 0,3% MoM. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a 0,25% rate hike in May is 61%.
Bitcoin investors should keep an eye out for these macros ahead of time
Earlier this week, the US is also to release data on initial jobless claims and the producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, April 13. Expectations for pre-tax PPI data are likely unchanged at 0,0%, while core PPI could rise to 0,3%.
On the other hand, the forecast for initial jobless claims will be 216.000, which was previously 228.000. Last week's data on the US labor market and the ISM index of private sector purchasing managers showed the visibility of some cracks in the US economy.
On Friday, April 13, the US is to release its retail sales data. For the final month of March, retail sales are likely to fall 0,5% per month, while core retail sales are expected to fall 0,4% per month.
Technical and on-chain data for Bitcoin
Data on the chain shows that Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate over the past week, which could be a positive sign for investors.
Another data on the chain, the Bitcoin adjusted SOPR, has crossed 1, suggesting that the next bull run will begin very soon.
Prominent cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe expects BTC price to jump to $40.000 once it clears the $30.000 resistance. He wrote: “Bitcoin is still trading against the upper timeframe resistance at $28-30K. Powell's policy of raising interest rates is probably about to end -> ingredient for relief. If #Bitcoin breaks $28-30K, $40K and $46K are the next + likely substantial altcoin breakouts due to confidence.”